Dear Reader,

Brent crude closed at $88 this morning. Iran is still attacking tankers in the Strait. Peace talks are stalled. And Washington just watched New York ban the single biggest new source of electricity demand in the country.

These two stories look separate. They are not. Both point to the same thing: the power grid just got more valuable, and most investors have not noticed yet.

Inside today's issue:

THE BARREL

Brent crude sits at $88 per barrel this morning. That is up roughly 20% on the month. The IEA says global supply is still down 9.4 million barrels per day from pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia went from 6.44 million barrels per day to 7.34 million in June, but they are not making up for the gap. They cannot. Iranian export capacity at 3.8 million barrels per day is still partially offline.

The "peace deal" narrative is keeping a lid on oil. Reuters is reporting that Trump-Iran talks are ongoing. That is the reason the market is not at $100. But here is the problem: the Houthis are still attacking ships. Drone strikes hit Egyptian tankers in Suez waters this week. No ceasefire. No timeline. Just optimism priced into $88 crude.

Refineries are running at 96.1% capacity. U.S. production is forecast at 13.78 million barrels per day for 2026. The EIA says supply will return if the Strait reopens cleanly. That is a big if.

THE GRID

New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on July 14 banning construction of new data centers using 50 megawatts or more of power. One year moratorium. Effective immediately. First state to do it.

Here is what most people missed: data centers consume an estimated 4% of U.S. electricity today. That number hits 9% to 12% by 2030. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all have active plans for nuclear-backed data center power. X-energy and Amazon have a deal targeting 5 GW of new nuclear capacity. NuScale has agreements with Standard Power in Ohio and Pennsylvania. TerraPower broke ground on a 345 MW plant.

New York just told Big Tech: not here. That pushes demand to Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona. States with power. States with land. States with grids that can be upgraded.

THE POLICY DESK

Q2 GDP came in at 1.5%. Estimates were above 2%. The BEA printed the advance estimate and the soft landing crowd went quiet. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, came in slightly soft month over month. That adds to the rate cut case for September or November.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Three dissents wanted a hike. Warsh gave zero forward guidance. The bond market responded: yields hit 19-year highs. The message is simple. The market does not trust Warsh's silence as a signal of calm.

Here is the energy angle. Slowing growth plus elevated rates plus a hot Strait equals one thing: the utilities and pipeline operators that generate real cash flow right now are in a better position than the tech names burning capital on infrastructure promises.

There is a number I want to show you before I get to the play. It changes how you think about everything above.

But first — For five months, a war over a 21-mile strait has rocked global energy. European gas is up 35%. Asian gas, 51%. And American gas? Down — because America is the one major economy that doesn't need that strait.

Robert Kiyosaki says the American drillers, pipelines, and power producers on the right side of this war are still priced like nobody noticed. He believes that ends August 4th — and at his Great American Energy Summit, he's giving away a free energy stock ticker to prove the point.

Click Here to Claim Your Free Stock Ticker Before August 4th →

THE INVESTOR ANGLE

That number. Here it is.

Nine point four million barrels per day. That is the production gap versus pre-war levels. It does not close when a peace deal is announced. It closes when pipelines are repaired, terminals reopened, tanker routes certified safe. That takes 6 to 18 months minimum after any ceasefire.

That gap stays with us. And every month it stays, the energy infrastructure in states that CAN deliver power becomes more valuable. Not because of policy. Because of physics. Power has to come from somewhere.

New York banned data centers. Texas did not. Ohio did not. Pennsylvania did not. The demand went somewhere. It always does.

I keep saying the same thing in different ways: the toll collector wins. Not the company extracting the oil. Not the data center burning the power. The company that moves the energy, stores the gas, or owns the grid segment that everything else depends on.

Hormuz stays hot through the summer. The grid gets tighter, not looser. The Fed is paralyzed. GDP is slowing. In that environment, real cash flow from essential infrastructure is not a hedge. It is the position.

Chris Carroll

Publisher, Money, Power and Profit

P.S. The book Hedge Fund Market Wizards profiles some of the greatest traders alive. And our friend Larry Benedict has his own chapter. Now this former hedge fund manager is turning to oil, and he says the market conditions forming right now are some of the best he has seen in 40 years. Watch the free presentation here.

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