The Strait of Hormuz just swallowed another week of headlines. Three rounds of U.S. strikes. Iranian tanker attacks that did not stop. A ceasefire that lasted long enough to give the market false hope, then collapsed on schedule.
WTI sits at $73.96 this morning. That sounds calm. It is not. When the strait was fully open, it handled 20% of the world's oil and one-fifth of global LNG trade. Today, throughput is running below 50% of pre-war levels. The market is pricing in "ceasefire hope," not supply reality.
That gap is where the trade lives.
Inside today's issue:
- THE BARREL: Who is collecting the Hormuz premium right now. It is not who you think.
- THE GRID: Why data centers are suddenly the most vulnerable infrastructure in the country. And why that makes two companies very rich.
- INVESTOR ANGLE: The play that wins whether the strait opens or stays shut. Both outcomes pay the same toll. I will name the tollbooth.
- The last energy revolution made investors rich. The next one is already underway.
The Barrel
WTI is at $73.96 this morning. Brent is roughly $78. Neither number reflects what is actually happening inside the strait.
Here is the thing about Hormuz: the price does not spike at closure. It spikes when buyers realize closures last. The first round of U.S.-Iran strikes was in February. It is now July. Five months in, throughput is still below 50% of pre-war volume. Three commercial vessels were hit in the first week of July alone. A Qatari LNG carrier. A Saudi crude tanker. A Cyprus-flagged container ship that had to be abandoned by its crew.
The market keeps pricing in a ceasefire that has not come. When it finally stops doing that, WTI does not sit at $73. It sits at $90. Maybe $100. Shell told its investors last month that Hormuz could stall global LNG trade flat through the entire year. That is not a risk. That is the current plan.
Who wins in this environment? Not the refiners who need cheap crude. The pipeline operators who move domestic production. The LNG export terminals that have long-term take-or-pay contracts and do not need Hormuz to get paid. The royalty companies collecting checks per barrel regardless of route.
The Grid
While everyone watches oil, here is what is moving on the electricity side.
Natural gas prices spiked hard in March when Qatar briefly paused LNG production after Iranian drone strikes. Europe and Asia paid the price. The U.S. did not, because U.S. LNG export capacity is tied up in long-term contracts with Asian buyers who are now desperate for supply. That means U.S. LNG exporters are sitting on a gap between contracted price and spot price that has never been wider. Sabine Pass. Corpus Christi. Freeport. Those facilities are not affected by Hormuz. They are benefiting from it.
Meanwhile, the AI buildout is accelerating power demand faster than the grid can respond. Every data center that comes online in the next 18 months needs baseload power. Nuclear and natural gas are the only two sources that can provide it at scale. The geopolitical shock has made that case stronger, not weaker. Utilities with long-term gas supply agreements locked in before the war are printing cash. The ones that didn't are scrambling.
Here is the number that stopped me when I looked at it this morning.
Before I get to the specific play, there is one number I want you to sit with. Because once you see it, everything about Hormuz makes sense in a new way.
SPONSORED: PARADIGM PRESS
Trump to Unleash Giant $2.7 Trillion Gold Mine?
Executive Order #14153 outlines what Jim Rickards believes are Trump's intentions to unleash the largest mineral reserve in the country. Up to $2.7 trillion in gold, silver, copper, and other precious elements. One company, trading for just $2 per share, holds 100% of the rights to this asset. You need to act before November 3.
Go here to get the full details before this stock soars
Investor Angle
Here is that number: 20%.
One-fifth of the world's oil and gas moved through Hormuz before the war. Today, less than half of that is moving. The market is not pricing that permanently. The market is pricing it temporarily. That is the trade.
When the strait is open, pipelines that carry oil west out of Saudi Arabia and the UAE command a small premium for avoiding the route risk. When the strait is partly closed, that premium doubles. When it is fully disrupted for months, that premium becomes the base price.
I look at two kinds of plays in this environment.
First: U.S. LNG exporters with take-or-pay contracts and Atlantic-route exposure. They get paid whether or not the strait opens. They are essentially a toll collector who owns the only other road.
Second: Royalty and streaming companies on domestic production. A royalty company does not operate a rig. It collects a percentage of everything that comes out of the ground. No Hormuz exposure. No tanker insurance costs. Just a check per barrel, every quarter, as long as the pump runs.
The Dow hit 53,056 last week. A 21st record close of 2026. Meanwhile, the insider buy-to-sell ratio sits at 0.24. That is well below the five-year average of 0.35. Smart money is not buying this rally. They are selling it. The energy plays that are insulated from Hormuz disruption are not in that sale. They are in the accumulation.
Pay attention to what the hands are doing. Not the mouth.
Chris Carroll
Publisher, Money, Power and Profit
P.S. The governments of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait once hired our friend Larry Benedict. So did the banks that hold money for Exxon, Chevron, and Shell. For decades, he helped the most powerful players in oil grow their money. Now he is revealing his top oil strategy, adapted so ordinary folks can use it too. Watch the free presentation here.
You might also be interested in:
Trump to Unleash Giant $2.7 Trillion Gold Mine? (Paradigm Press)
US Attacks Iran Over Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz (NPR)
Larry Benedict: A Better Way to Play Oil (Free Presentation)
Hormuz Disruption to Stall 2026 LNG Trade, Says Shell (Energy Now)