The $14 Billion LNG Toll Booth Trump Just Opened

Dear Reader,

Two LNG deals just cleared in the same week. Together they represent more than $14 billion in new infrastructure. Neither one depends on oil prices, OPEC decisions, or whatever Iran does next. They just collect a fee on every molecule of gas that moves through the pipe. That is the play I keep coming back to.

WTI crude is sitting near $101 a barrel today, down from $107 on Monday as Trump paused a new round of Iran strikes. Markets celebrated. Oil sold off. But here is what the sell-off misses: the structural disruption is not going away. The Strait of Hormuz has been choked for 81 days. Eighty percent of the energy industry expects it to stay that way through August. The $30 premium baked into every barrel did not vanish overnight. It adjusted.

Meanwhile, Secretary Wright signed off on Port Arthur LNG Phase II on May 19. That is 1.91 billion cubic feet per day of new US export capacity. And Commonwealth LNG took its final investment decision on a $13 billion project in Louisiana. Trump has now authorized 11.45 billion cubic feet per day of LNG exports under Secretary Wright. The world is buying American gas whether oil is at $80 or $120.

The grid side of this story is just as big. DOE released $94 million in SMR funding last week. The NRC just issued its first new reactor licensing framework in decades. AI data centers are driving power demand that utilities have not seen in a century. The capital is following the load. Today I want to show you where I see the toll booths in this market.

THE WIRE

What I am watching today

• THE BARREL: WTI at $101 while Hormuz stays choked. Why traders are calling this a dip, not a reversal, and the production number that tells the real story.

• THE GRID: DOE drops $94 million on SMRs the same week NRC issues its first new reactor licensing framework in decades. The name of the DOE program says everything.

• THE POLICY DESK: Secretary Wright authorized two LNG projects in a week worth $14 billion. The toll-collector math on what that means for US gas exporters.

•  THE PLAY: Savings Account Pays 0.6%. While P.I.P. Pays 10% It's not a government program either. It's ownership in America’s energy infrastructure. And over 70% of what you collect is tax-deferred. The next payout drops in days.

THE BARREL

Oil, gas and the Hormuz premium

WTI dropped 2.5% today to $101.50. Brent fell to $108. Traders took Trump's latest Iran pause as a reason to sell. I do not blame them. But look at where oil was in February: $62 a barrel. The Hormuz closure added $40 overnight. A negotiation pause shaved $5. That is not a reversal. That is noise.

The fundamentals have not changed. US crude production is at 13.57 million barrels per day, down from 13.83 million in December. The Baker Hughes rig count sits at 415 crude rigs. That is 60 fewer than a year ago. $100 oil is not triggering a drilling boom. Operators are disciplined. Supply is not coming back fast.

Natural gas tells a different story. Henry Hub is at $3.12 per MMBtu, up 15% over the past month. EQT curtailed output. Summer heat is coming early. And with Qatar LNG infrastructure damaged from Iranian strikes, US Gulf Coast exports are moving record volumes. Cheniere is targeting 50 million tonnes per annum this year. OPEC+ added 188,000 barrels a day for June, calling it cautious. They know the market can absorb it.

THE GRID

Nuclear, SMRs and the AI power problem

Last week DOE released $94 million in federal funding to accelerate Small Modular Reactor deployment. The target: Gen III+ designs with clear licensing pathways and domestic supply chain development. Nebraska Public Power District is the lead developer on one of the projects. If you are not tracking the nuclear fuel cycle companies, now is the time.

The NRC simultaneously issued the first new reactor licensing framework in decades. The agency called it the fastest path to safe reactor deployment since the 1970s. That is not a coincidence. The Trump administration launched a program called Nuclear Dominance, 3 by 33. The goal: triple US nuclear capacity to 400 gigawatts by 2050, with a domestic fuel supply chain locked in by 2033. Ninety companies have already signed up.

The demand side is what is driving all of this. AI data centers may account for 4% of global electricity by year-end, doubled from 2022. The NextEra-Dominion $67 billion merger that landed on Monday is a direct response to this. Two of the largest power companies in the US combining to own the grid corridors feeding Virginia Data Center Alley. Regulated transmission. Rate-base revenue. Captive customers. That is not a bet on energy prices. That is a bet on electrons moving through wire.

THE POLICY DESK

LNG, permits and the Wright doctrine

Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed off on Port Arthur LNG Phase II on May 19. That is 1.91 billion cubic feet per day of new export capacity from Sempra's Jefferson County, Texas facility. It is his fifth authorization since taking office. Total US LNG authorized under Trump: 11.45 billion cubic feet per day. The world is rewiring its gas supply toward the US Gulf Coast and these authorizations are the foundation.

Three days before that, on May 15, Wright visited Commonwealth LNG in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, the same day owner Caturus announced its final investment decision. $13 billion. 9.5 million tonnes per annum. First operations targeted for 2030. This is not a proposal. They are building.

And today, FERC is holding public scoping sessions for the Bakken East Pipeline in Hazen, North Dakota. WBI Energy wants to move 1 billion cubic feet per day through 374 miles of new pipeline. North Dakota committed $500 million in state financing. This kind of state-backed infrastructure buildout is exactly what moves stranded Bakken gas to LNG export markets. The pieces are fitting together fast.

Here is the question I keep asking myself: if every major LNG project just locked in decades of throughput volume at a fixed fee per MMBtu, who actually gets paid to move the gas from the wellhead to the export dock? That is the number I want to put in front of you right now.

The answer is the midstream operators. Kinder Morgan and Energy Transfer do not own the gas. They move it. They charge a tariff on every molecule that flows through their pipes. Long-term take-or-pay contracts. Volume times fee equals revenue. Commodity prices are noise to them.

THE PLAY

The toll collectors I would buy right now

Kinder Morgan is guiding for $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year, up 4% from 2025. Their backlog is loaded with natural gas projects feeding LNG terminals and data center power plants. Energy Transfer is deploying $5.5 billion in infrastructure in 2026 alone. Their Hugh Brinson Pipeline out of the Permian Basin completes year-end.

These are not speculations on oil prices. They are infrastructure businesses with 20-year contracts and regulated returns. When Secretary Wright authorizes another 1.91 billion cubic feet per day of LNG exports, the gas has to move from the wellhead to the terminal. Kinder Morgan and Energy Transfer own the pipes that do it.

The Williams Companies is the third leg. They move natural gas from the Appalachian Basin, the largest gas-producing region in the US. As Henry Hub climbs 15% in a month and EQT curtails output, the volumes do not disappear. They reroute. Williams collects on the reroute.

I look at a market where US LNG exports are heading toward records, where $94 million in SMR funding signals government commitment to grid buildout, where the FERC pipeline calendar is full, and where natural gas demand is climbing because every AI data center in the country needs power. The toll booth does not care which fuel wins. It just collects the fee.

To your power,
Robert Kiyosaki

P.S. If you want to know exactly where I see the strongest infrastructure toll-collector setups right now, the ones with long-term contracts and volume growth tied directly to the LNG export boom, click here to see what I am watching.