Dear Reader,
WTI is trading at $107.64 this morning. Brent touched $111.42 at the open. That is a 73% run since January 1.
Every headline is chasing the Iran story. The ceasefire talks are dead. Trump posted a warning on Truth Social yesterday that sounded like a countdown clock. The peace talks have a “1% chance of living,” according to the White House last week.
I am not here to tell you where crude goes next. Nobody knows. What I can tell you is this: Iran just launched a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Up to $2 million per vessel. A 40-question permit form. That is not a blockade tactic. That is a business model.
The question I am asking this week is not who wins the war. It is who owns the infrastructure that gets paid either way.
The Wire
Five things moving the energy market today
• THE BARREL: WTI up 11% last week alone. Baker Hughes counted 551 U.S. rigs on Friday, the fourth straight weekly gain. And Devon Energy just completed the largest shale deal in two years. Here is what it means for the supply picture.
• THE GRID: NERC issued its highest-priority alert last month after data centers knocked 1,000 megawatts off the grid in seconds. Big tech now has 40 gigawatts of nuclear power in the pipeline. Here is why that number is about to get larger.
• THE POLICY DESK: Trump just authorized 1.91 billion cubic feet per day of new LNG exports from Port Arthur. That is his fifth authorization of the year. Here is what 11.45 billion cubic feet per day of cumulative approvals actually means for U.S. energy.
• THE PLAY: The Hormuz toll booth just moved. Not to the Persian Gulf. Here is where I think the next toll booth gets built, and who collects.
• INCOME PLAY: The same energy disruption driving crude to $107 is pushing payouts from 14 privately owned oil and gas partnerships higher. Zero requirements to enroll. The next payout is days away. See how to collect your share here.
The Barrel
Oil, gas, and the physical market
WTI closed Friday at $102.40 and woke up Monday at $107.64. Brent crossed $111. That is a $9 move over the weekend on zero new military action. The market is pricing in permanent disruption, not temporary.
Baker Hughes reported 551 U.S. rigs working on Friday, up 3 from the prior week. It is the fourth straight gain. The Permian jumped 10 rigs to 437. Producers at $100-plus crude are drilling. The EIA projects U.S. output hits 13.7 million barrels per day this year.
Devon Energy and Coterra Energy closed their $58 billion all-stock merger on May 8. Largest shale deal since 2024. Combined company anchored in the Delaware Basin, now trading as DVN. When operators this size consolidate at peak pricing, they are betting on the cycle lasting.
On the LNG side: Caturus reached Final Investment Decision on Commonwealth LNG last Friday. $9.75 billion in project financing. $21.25 billion total. Cameron Parish, Louisiana. First exports in 2030. That is the largest LNG financing decision of the year, signed the same week WTI cleared $100.
The Grid
Nuclear, SMRs, and the power demand surge
NERC issued a Level 3 Essential Actions alert on May 4. Level 3 is its highest-urgency designation. The trigger: data centers are dropping 1,000 megawatts or more off the grid in seconds. Grid stability incidents. NERC called the existing reliability standards “inadequate.”
FERC Chairman Laura Swett told PJM’s annual meeting last week that the grid operator may be “too big to function.” She called its governance “unacceptable.” A formal conference is set for July 23. Meanwhile, MISO cleared capacity at $400 per megawatt-day for summer, a high number.
The response is already moving. Big tech now has 40 gigawatts of nuclear power in the pipeline, according to NEI CEO Maria Korsnick on May 12. Meta has 6.6 gigawatts committed across Oklo, TerraPower, Vistra, and Constellation. X-energy went public last month at $23 per share, raising over $1 billion. TerraPower’s Natrium reactor in Wyoming has a construction permit and Bechtel already on site.
Morgan Stanley projects $2.2 trillion in nuclear investment through 2050. The NRC just cut its license renewal timelines by more than half. The grid stress signal is real. The capital response is just getting started.
The Policy Desk
Washington, geopolitics, and regulation
Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed a final LNG export authorization for Port Arthur Phase II on Friday. Sempra Energy. 1.91 billion cubic feet per day to non-FTA countries. That is Trump’s fifth authorization this year. Cumulative approvals now total 11.45 billion cubic feet per day.
Wright’s quote: “Turning more of the liquid gold beneath our feet into energy security for the American people.” That is not just rhetoric. The U.S. is the world’s largest LNG exporter. With Hormuz closed, that fact just got more valuable.
On the Russia front: the U.S. Treasury did not renew the General License for Russian oil purchases when it expired on May 16. India requested an extension. Denied. Russia responded by blocking Kazakh crude transit to Germany’s PCK Schwedt refinery, which supplies most of Berlin’s fuel. Europe is discovering, again, that energy independence is not a slogan.
The Iran ceasefire talks remain deadlocked. Trump’s Truth Social post Sunday sounded like a final warning. The EIA revised upward its disruption estimates, now assuming Hormuz stays shut through at least late May. UBS says global inventories hit all-time lows of 7.6 billion barrels by end of month if demand holds.
There is a number buried in last week’s news that tells you exactly where the next generation of energy infrastructure money flows. It is not the crude price. It is not the rig count. It is the Commonwealth LNG financing figure. $9.75 billion. Closed on the same Friday that WTI cleared $100 for the first time since the war started. Before I show you why that number matters for the play I am watching right now...
The Play
Where the toll booth moves next
...that Commonwealth LNG financing tells you something the crude price does not. The $9.75 billion did not close because someone thinks oil stays at $107. It closed because someone thinks U.S. LNG infrastructure is a toll booth. The gas flows. The terminal collects. Whether Iran opens the strait tomorrow or stays closed for two years.
That is the frame. Not who wins the war. Who owns the infrastructure that gets paid either way.
Look at what big money is doing. The AES Corporation just got taken private in a $33.4 billion deal by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT. One of the largest utility take-privates in U.S. history. When private equity at that scale buys a power company, they are not betting on energy prices. They are betting on energy demand.
Golden Pass LNG shipped its first export cargo on April 22. Commonwealth LNG breaks ground with $9.75 billion financed. TerraPower is pouring concrete in Wyoming. Kairos just broke ground in Oak Ridge for a nuclear plant Google contracted. The grid stress signal from NERC, the data center power demand, the Hormuz disruption: they all point to the same conclusion.
The toll booths of this energy cycle are not in the Persian Gulf. They are in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. Kemmerer, Wyoming. Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The smart money is not waiting to see how the war ends. It is already collecting.
To your power,
Robert Kiyosaki
P.S. The same energy infrastructure driving today’s story is paying out income to everyday investors right now — 42 times a year, from 14 privately owned oil and gas partnerships. Zero requirements to enroll. The next payout is days away. See how to collect your share here.