Dear Reader,
This morning I watched the news come across my desk all at once. Scott Bessent gave Russia a third straight pass on oil sanctions. WTI sits near $103. PJM grid prices are up 76% in a single quarter. And the biggest power deal in U.S. history just closed.
None of this is a coincidence. It is all one story.
Energy runs the world. The war did not create that fact. The war just made it impossible to ignore.
Here is what I am watching today.
THE WIRE
Today's signals, from barrel to grid to play
• THE BARREL: WTI crude holds near $103 as the Hormuz crisis drags into month three. OPEC cut 188,000 barrels per day starting June. One number tells you where oil is headed next.
• THE GRID: NextEra just paid $67 billion to buy Dominion Energy. That is the biggest power deal ever. Here is why the buyer, not the target, is the real story.
• THE POLICY DESK: Trump extended Russia's oil waiver for the third time. Two sides to this story. The financial press is getting one of them completely wrong.
• THE PLAY: When grid prices jump 76% in one quarter, someone is collecting that toll. I will show you who and how to get in front of it. Click here to see the 10% Patriot Income Program
THE BARREL
Oil, gas & commodities
WTI crude sat near $103 this morning. Down a bit from Monday after Trump said he called off a planned Iran strike. That is the noise.
Here is the signal. U.S. rig count hit 551 last week, up three. Output is near an all-time high at 13.5 million barrels per day. Oil is still 64% higher than a year ago.
Why? The Strait of Hormuz. The war that began February 28 did not end the supply shock when the shooting slowed. The IEA logged a 10.1 million barrel per day supply drop in March alone. Saudi output fell by 2 million barrels. Iraq lost 2.7 million. The market is still working through that hole.
LNG tells the same story. U.S. exports hit 20 billion cubic feet per day. Corpus Christi shipments jumped 40% year-over-year. Five new export plants open in 2026 and 2027. The world is paying top dollar to route around the Gulf. American gas producers are cashing those checks.
The UAE left OPEC on May 1 after 59 years. That is not a headline. That is a structural shift. It changes the cartel's production math for good. Next OPEC meeting: June 7.
THE GRID
Nuclear, power & energy assets
The biggest power deal in U.S. history landed Monday. NextEra Energy agreed to buy Dominion Energy for $67 billion in stock.
Dominion owns the power grid under Data Center Alley in Northern Virginia. That is the largest cluster of AI servers on earth. NextEra brings a $190 billion balance sheet and nuclear expertise to build what those servers need.
Think about what this tells you. The largest green power builder in the country just decided the best use of $67 billion is buying grid assets. Not solar panels. Not wind farms. Regulated utility wire. Whoever controls the wire wins.
The grid numbers back this up. PJM prices jumped 76% in Q1 2026, from $77 to $136 per megawatt hour. Capacity costs up 400%. FERC Chair Laura Swett said this month that PJM may be too big to function. That is the top U.S. grid regulator saying the grid cannot handle the load.
The nuclear buildout is moving fast. TerraPower got its build permit for a 345-MW reactor in Wyoming in March. Kairos Power broke ground on a 50-MW Gen IV plant in Oak Ridge, with Google lined up as the buyer. The DOE sent $94 million to eight companies this month to speed up small reactor deployment. The asset layer is being built right now.
THE POLICY DESK
DC, geopolitics & regulation
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave Russia a third straight oil waiver this morning. Countries can keep buying Russian crude already loaded on ships at sea.
Here is the context. The IEA documented a 7.5 million barrel per day shortfall in March from the Hormuz crisis. Russia's waiver added about $150 million per day of crude back to the market. India and Indonesia lobbied hard for this. They need it.
The political fight is real. Senators Shaheen and Warren called it a gift to Putin. Ukraine says every dollar funds the war. That pressure does not go away. Watch for a Senate vote to curb the waivers.
On LNG, the DOE removed Biden-era red tape for export terminal permits. Ten stalled projects in Texas and Louisiana can now apply to keep their permits. Pipeline capacity that was at risk of expiring is back in play.
FERC held a public meeting today on gas plant rules. The commission also said it will rule on large-load grid access by June. That ruling sets the rules for how data centers connect to the grid. It is one of the most important calls in energy policy this year.
There is one detail in the power market right now that most investors miss. It determines who gets paid no matter what happens to oil. But before I walk you through the setup...
Sponsored: The Oxford Club
The SpaceX IPO Makes Me FURIOUS
Elon has reportedly filed to take SpaceX public in an IPO expected to hit a $1.75 trillion value. The biggest in Wall Street history. You know who makes all the money? The banks. The hedge funds. The insider crowd. The same already-rich 1%.
After the IPO, everyone else fights over scraps. That is why we are changing the math (here is how to claim your Pre-IPO Access Code).
THE PLAY
The investor's angle
...here is who collects the toll when grid prices jump 76% in a quarter.
Merchant power sellers. These are companies that own plants inside PJM and sell power at the spot price. Not locked into long-term deals. When grid prices double, their sales nearly double. Their costs stay flat.
Vistra is the clearest play. They added 4.5 gigawatts of new capacity this year. They signed a 20-year, 2.1-gigawatt nuclear deal with Meta. Their Q1 prices in PJM jumped more than 80%. They own plants at Beaver Valley, Perry, and Davis-Besse, all running flat out.
Constellation sits in the same spot. Nuclear power priced at $136 per megawatt hour is a different business than nuclear at $78. Same plant, same cost, very different profit.
The NextEra-Dominion deal tells you what the utilities themselves think. The regulated utility side just got bought at a $67 billion premium. The merchant side is still trading at today's prices.
The question is simple: who owns the asset that has to run no matter who wins the AI race? Power has to flow. The plants in the right market are going to get paid. That is where I am looking.
To your power, Robert Kiyosaki
P.S. Saudi Families Get $3,600 a Month. What do you get?
The Saudis pay their citizens just for existing. Funded entirely by oil revenue, the average Saudi family collects $3,600 a month.
Meanwhile, you get nothing from America's $300 billion energy industry. Politicians argue. CEOs get rich. You get nothing.
But there is a way to get your cut. It's called P.I.P. When you enroll, you get paid 42 times a year from 14 partnerships that control America's pipelines, terminals, and processing plants.
Right now, P.I.P. is paying 10% a year. It's the closest thing to Universal Basic Income you’ll ever see. Click here to see the 10% Patriot Income Program... The next payout is days away.