[DRAFT] Trump Gives Iran 1% Odds -- And the Energy Map Just Changed Forever

Dear Reader,

I watched President Trump give Iran's peace proposal 1% odds this morning. That is not a negotiating position. That is a verdict.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for ten weeks. WTI is at $98. Brent is at $104. And while Washington debates whether Tehran will blink, the companies that own America's energy infrastructure are quietly banking record profits.

The smart money is not waiting for a ceasefire. It is buying the infrastructure that wins either way.

Here is what is moving today.

The Wire

Today's signals from the energy grid

• THE BARREL: The reason oil has not crashed back to $70 is not Iran. It is something happening inside OPEC that most traders are completely ignoring. More below.

• THE GRID: A nuclear company no one heard of three months ago just cleared the most important regulatory hurdle in American atomic history -- and NVIDIA is now involved. More below.

• THE POLICY DESK: Congress just put a July 4 deadline on $50 billion in tax credits. The clock is running. More below.

• THE PLAY: There is one type of energy company that collects a check whether oil is at $70 or $140. Robert calls them toll roads. Here is exactly where to look. More below.

• Have $500? Here’s how to get a stake in Elon’s AI masterplan before the IPO rush begins.

The Barrel

Oil, natural gas, and commodities

WTI crude hit $98.40 this morning. Brent at $104.51. The Strait of Hormuz -- the throat through which 20% of the world's oil flows -- has been choked for ten weeks straight.

But here is what the headlines are missing. The UAE just quit OPEC. On May 1, the country that pumps 3.4 million barrels a day walked out of the cartel. This is not a footnote. The UAE has capacity for 4.85 million barrels per day and plans to hit 5 million by 2027. When Hormuz reopens, the UAE will not be waiting for a Saudi production meeting. It will produce what it wants.

The real tell is in the earnings reports. Cheniere Energy just raised its full-year guidance by $500 million at the midpoint. The company shipped 187 LNG cargoes in Q1 -- a record. U.S. LNG exports averaged 18.85 billion cubic feet per day this year. Shell made $7 billion in Q1. Baker Hughes beat estimates by $260 million on LNG orders alone.

The war is disrupting supply. The infrastructure built to move energy around the war is printing money.

Robert's take: Own the pipe, not the barrel.

The Grid

Nuclear, SMR, power infrastructure

Nuclear had three landmark moments last week. The mainstream press covered exactly one of them.

The one you heard about: Oklo jumped 22.5%. The NRC approved a key design report for its Aurora fast reactor in Idaho. The company also announced a tie-up with NVIDIA and Los Alamos National Laboratory on nuclear-powered AI facilities. Oklo reports a 14 gigawatt customer pipeline.

The one you may have missed: TerraPower broke ground in Wyoming. Bill Gates' company started construction on the Natrium sodium-cooled reactor in Kemmerer -- the first advanced nuclear construction permit issued in the U.S. in ten years. Target: online by 2030.

The one almost no one covered: Kairos Power's HERMES II reactor in Tennessee broke ground too. It will power a Google data center through a deal with the Tennessee Valley Authority.

American Electric Power signed 7 gigawatts of new load agreements in Q1 2026 alone -- mostly data centers. AEP now has 41 gigawatts of new commitments in Texas and just raised its 5-year capital plan to $78 billion.

The grid is not ready. The money building it is.

The Policy Desk

Washington, geopolitics, and regulation

There is a deadline most energy investors do not know about. July 4, 2026.

That is the day Congress's reconciliation bill kills the construction window for wind and solar tax credits. Any project that does not break ground before July 4 loses access to the investment tax credit. We are talking about $50 billion in clean energy investment now racing a calendar. Developers are scrambling. Equipment is being pre-ordered. It is the most important single date in renewable energy finance this year.

In Washington, Maryland Governor Wes Moore stood in front of the PJM annual conference yesterday and demanded that data centers -- not ratepayers -- pay for the grid upgrades those data centers require. He called for long-term power contracts and capacity market caps. When a Democratic governor demands that Amazon and Google pay their own bills, something has changed in the politics of power.

Meanwhile, Iran rejected U.S. peace terms yesterday. Trump called their counter-proposal "garbage." The Hormuz ceasefire is running at 1% odds. That is not a figure of speech. That came directly from the president this morning.

Plan accordingly.

The Play

The B-quadrant investment angle

I have said this for 30 years. Rich people do not gamble on the price of a barrel. They own the road the barrel travels on.

The Iran war has shown you exactly what that means. When Hormuz shut down, three types of companies separated from the pack. The oil producers -- vulnerable to the price swings, the disruptions, the politics. The traders -- reactive, not predictive. And the infrastructure owners: the LNG terminals, the power grids, the transmission lines. Those companies collected revenue whether oil was at $70 or $110.

Cheniere does not care if WTI is $80 or $120. It signs 20-year contracts and ships LNG. Record volumes. Raised guidance. AEP does not care if the next president is Trump or someone else. Forty-one gigawatts of new data center demand is sitting on its Texas grid. It just committed $78 billion to handle it.

Constellation Energy restarted Three Mile Island for Microsoft on a 20-year deal. Meta signed a 20-year nuclear contract with Constellation for another plant starting 2027. These are not bets on energy prices. These are toll booth contracts. You pay me to use the road. I do not care about the traffic count -- only that the cars keep coming.

The war ends eventually. The demand for power does not. That asymmetry is the play.

To your power,

Robert Kiyosaki

P.S. Most people will watch the SpaceX IPO from the sidelines. A small group won’t. If you have $500, here’s how to get positioned today.