Dear Reader,

I don't trust the AI boom. Never have.

These tech billionaires tell us we need massive amounts of new electricity.

For what? To power computers that write mediocre poetry? Please. 

So naturally, they're pushing nuclear power. Fission reactors. Uranium. Plutonium.

But there's another kind of nuclear power. Fusion. And the hype around fusion makes AI hype look restrained.

Here's what you need to understand. Right now, there are zero commercial fusion reactors. None.

Why?

Because it takes far more energy to run a fusion reaction than you get out of it. You're spending a dollar to make a dime.

It's like that old joke. The manufacturer loses a nickel on every sale but makes it up in volume. Makes no sense, right?

Fusion researchers aren't stupid. They know the math doesn't work yet. They're waiting for the day when fusion produces more energy than it consumes.

They've been waiting a long time.

Hence the other joke: Fusion power is only 25 years away. And always will be.

But now the AI industry needs power. Lots of it. Right now.

So the fusion timeline is suddenly accelerating. Magic, right?

Commonwealth Fusion Systems—an MIT startup—claims they'll achieve net-energy-positive fusion by 2027. The Chinese government says maybe within a few years.

When these announcements come, read the fine print.

Eleven years ago, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory made a big announcement. Their fusion experiment produced more energy than was used to create the fuel.

Sounds impressive, right?

Here's what they didn't tell you. The entire system consumed 118 times more energy than the experiment produced.

One hundred and eighteen times!

But lazy reporters didn't read the background materials. They ran with the sexy headline. Millions of people got the wrong impression.

In 2022, the same lab declared "net energy gain" from fusion.

I read the fine print. One single shot produced more energy than the fuel absorbed. True. But the whole facility—lasers, cryogenics, control systems—consumed far more power than it delivered.

You have to look at the whole system.

One analysis showed the complete system consumed about 100 times the energy produced. That's progress, sure. But we're nowhere near actual net energy from fusion.

Plus, current systems only produce momentary bursts. Like a camera flash. Not sustained reactions like conventional fission reactors.

The Chinese government expects a pilot fusion plant by the 2030s or 2040s. That's far away. And vague.

Here's what most people don't understand about energy infrastructure.

First comes the prototype. Does it even work?

Then comes the pilot plant. Can it integrate with the existing power grid?

Then comes the demonstration plant. Full-size. This is where you test economic viability. Utility managers want proof these plants are reliable and profitable.

Demonstration plants? Maybe the 2050s or 2060s. Under optimistic scenarios.

Then utilities have to decide to build their own plants. Late 2050s at the earliest.

Widespread adoption? Add another 20 to 30 years.

Do the math. We're talking 2070, 2080, maybe longer.

Even if fusion works—and I have serious doubts—it won't provide any near-term solution for energy needs. It won't address climate change in time to matter.

Why?

Energy transitions take time. More than one generation.

I've seen this pattern before. In times of stress, people want miracles. Easy answers to hard problems.

Fusion looks like a miracle.

It's not.

If fusion ever becomes feasible—still a massive if—it will emerge slowly. Painfully slowly. Decades. Generations.

This is the same story energy has told for over a century. Bold promises. Underestimated timelines. Complexity nobody acknowledges.

The fusion promoters are selling you a dream. A dream that's always 25 years away.

I'm not buying it. You shouldn't either.

Here's what I know about money and energy: Real solutions don't require you to wait until 2070. Real solutions don't burn 100 times more energy than they produce and call it a "breakthrough."

Real solutions work. Today.

Fusion doesn't work. Not yet. Maybe not ever.

And if it does work someday, you'll be long gone before it powers your house.

That's the truth they don't want you to hear.

But I'm telling you anyway. Because I tell you the truth about money, investing, and energy. Even when it's not popular. 

Even when it doesn't fit the narrative.

The fusion dream? It's a nice dream.

But I invest in reality, not dreams.

You should too.

Robert Kiyosaki

Editor, Money Power and Profit

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