Dear Reader,
The world runs on oil. It always has.
When the oil stops flowing, everything stops. The machines. The trucks. The economy.
The Chokepoint Crisis: A vital global artery is blocked, causing massive price swings and forcing desperate producers to dump oil fast before their storage tanks overflow.
Political Panic: The White House is scrambling to prevent an economic disaster, throwing out sanctions waivers, naval escorts, and threats of military force to keep the oil flowing.
Main Street Bleeds: While Wall Street traders bet on a quick fix, average Americans are getting crushed at the gas pump—and the government admits the pain is only going to get worse.
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Right now, the flow is choking.
The Strait of Hormuz is shut down. It’s the most vital artery on the planet. The conflict in Iran blocked it. Now the oil sits.
The markets panicked. They always do.
Brent crude spiked over $115 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate hit $115 too. It was a violent move. Fast. Brutal.
Then it dropped. It fell 25 percent. Down to $85.
People think the danger is over. They think the worst has passed. They are wrong.
The Energy Information Administration put out a report. They say prices will slide back to $70 by year-end. They say the pain is temporary.
Don’t bet your financial future on a government forecast.
The Storage Crisis
Here is what is really happening.
The oil isn’t moving through the Strait. So it has to go somewhere. It goes into storage.
But the tanks are full.
Middle East producers are cutting production. Why?
Because they have nowhere to put the oil. Ipek Ozkardeskaya is a sharp analyst at Swissquote Bank. She sees it.
She says Saudi Arabia is dumping oil fast. They are selling for immediate delivery. Usually, they want long-term contracts. Now?
They just want it gone. They are feeding the market as fast as they can.
They are terrified of running out of space.
When the Strait opens, they say the floodgates will open too.
The EIA thinks global inventories will surge.
They predict an extra 1.9 million barrels a day by 2026. Three million by 2027.
They say U.S. production will jump too. Almost 14 million barrels a day by next year.
It sounds like a perfect solution. It sounds too easy.
The Geopolitical Game
The politicians are playing a dangerous game.
Natural gas prices dropped. Down to $3. The EIA says mild weather saved us.
They say domestic prices won’t get hurt.
But look at the big picture. Look at the moves being made.
President Trump fired a warning shot.
He went on Truth Social. He told Iran if they stop the oil, America will hit them 20 times harder.
It was a blunt threat.
Iran hasn’t officially closed the Strait.
But traffic is dead. Insurance companies canceled coverage. Tankers are scared to cross.
The White House is scrambling. They are trying to stop the bleeding.
They gave India a waiver to buy Russian oil. They offered insurance to tankers. They are talking about naval escorts.
Trump even announced plans to waive sanctions. Anything to lower the price.
The International Energy Agency is meeting. They are talking about tapping emergency reserves. They have 1.2 billion barrels sitting there.
They are throwing everything at the wall. Hoping something sticks.
The Pain at the Pump
The market thinks the crisis is over.
The massive price drop means investors expect a quick fix. They think the Strait will open tomorrow.
That’s a gambler’s bet.
And while the Wall Street guys trade paper, the average guy pays the price.
Look at the gas station. The national average is $3.54 a gallon. It jumped 62 cents in a month.
The EIA admits it. The pain isn’t over.
They expect retail prices to keep climbing. The refineries are slow to adjust. The upward pressure will continue into the second quarter.
The price of crude might be dropping on a screen in New York. But the price of gas is rising on Main Street.
That’s how the game is rigged.
The Real Lesson
This isn’t just about oil. It’s about control.
When you rely on a narrow waterway halfway across the world, you are vulnerable. When you rely on government reserves to save you, you are a victim.
The smart money knows this.
They don’t panic when prices spike. They don’t relax when prices drop.
They look at the fundamentals. They look at the supply chain.
The system is fragile. One conflict. One closed strait. That’s all it takes to send shockwaves through the global economy.
Don’t trust the forecasts. Don’t trust the politicians.
Look at the facts. Prepare for the worst. Protect your wealth.
The pain at the pump is just the beginning.
Robert Kiyosaki
Editor, Money Power and Profit
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